Mary Taylor Closes Gap with Mike DeWine in Polls (see also update below)

May 7, 2018

In a January poll, relatively unknown Mary Taylor was 30 points behind Mike DeWine (who already had high name recognition among Ohioans) for tomorrow’s primary for governor.  In a more recent poll, Taylor had closed that gap to only 17 points.

For apples-to-apples comparison, both polls were commissioned by the same organization, the 1984 Society (“a nonprofit, bipartisan group of former Ohio Senate employees and senators who wanted good independent polling for the political community”).

In January (poll taken January 16th-19th), 54% of respondents favored DeWine, 14% Taylor, with 32% undecided:

DeWine-Taylor in January, 30 points.PNG

By April (poll taken April 4th-7th), only 43% were with DeWine, while 26% were for Taylor:

DeWine-Taylor in April, 17 points.PNG

If you’re counting, that also implies some 31% still undecided, more than enough to swing the race either way if they break for one candidate over the other.  It’s still anybody’s game.

Update (May 7th, 2018):  In a recent poll by Baldwin Wallace University’s Community Research Institute, 52% of respondents favored Mike DeWine, 25% Mary Taylor.  This poll is more recent (conducted April 24th-May 2nd).  On the other hand, note that the organization is different from the one associated with the other two polls described above; it is possible that some part of this difference is due to differences in methodology rather than a change in support for the two candidates.  Finally, note those conducting this poll report “one in four (25%) of Republicans remain unsure”; it’s not clear why the three categories add up to more than 100%.

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