Republicans to Take Illinois? R. Leading D. in Polls 44.5-41.5
July 30, 2014
For months, NPR has been worrying that the Democrats could lose big this November (e.g., “Poll: Young Voters Uninterested In November 2014 Elections”). Several weeks ago, NRO’s Jim Geraghty produced a piece under the headline “With Midterms Four Months Away, Dashboard Is Blinking Red for Democrats”.
Not convinced yet? Fair enough. I agree, no need to count chickens before they’re hatched. That said, there continue to be encouraging signs. The latest, as Jim Geraghty suggests, is “The Coming Republican Takeover of . . . Illinois?”
Gov. Pat Quinn is facing an increasingly uphill battle against Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner, a new We Ask America poll shows.
Rauner is now sitting on a 14-point lead in the poll that was conducted July 28, which is up from his 10-point lead he had in a June poll. Rauner’s boost can be attributed to his economic plan, which includes a state income tax reduction. . . .
Overall, if the election were held today, Rauner would pull in 47 percent of the vote, compared to Quinn’s 33 percent. Of those polled, 20 percent said they’re still undecided.
. . .
Democrats have a 40-to-19 margin in the senate and a 71-to-47 margin in the house. But a big win by Rauner could create coattails, and it appears he and his campaign are investing money in an effort to make that happen . . . .
Another source reports that the party has opened 20 field offices just in the collar counties. In comparison, [the 2010 Republican candidate] had three offices in the entire state.
(Quotation indentation omitted. Read the whole thing at Geraghty’s blog.)
The current Real Clear Politics polling average puts Republican Bruce Rauner ahead of incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn by three points, 44.5 to 41.5.
If it doesn’t go without saying, Illinois is normally a very blue state.
It’s 6th bluest out of the 50 in terms of how many people (proportionately) voted for Obama in 2008 (61.92%), for example, according to Wikipedia—though, perhaps interestingly, it fell to 11th out of 50 by that measure in 2012 (57.60%).
On the other hand, New Jersey is higher than Illinois on that list, and New Jersey famously has a reform Republican governor (who is so popular that he was re-elected last year in a 60-38 landslide). So I suppose anything is possible, with enough will and means.
Hat tip to “lou222”, commenting at America’s Watchtower.