Obama Campaign Promised Obamacare Would Reduce Annual Health-care Spending by $2,500 per Average Family; Obama Administration Now Admits Obamacare Will Increase Health-care Spending by $7,450 per Average Family over Eight Years
September 24, 2013
Avik Roy explains at National Review Online: “Obamacare Bends the Cost Curve—Upward”
He’s discussing this post on a Forbes blog: “Obamacare Will Increase Health Spending By $7,450 For A Typical Family of Four”, by Chris Conover, who has the details.
Some readers may recall that a few months ago, there were widespread reports of a slow-down in health spending. Not surprisingly, the White House has been quick to claim credit for the slowdown in health spending documented in the health spending projections report, arguing that it “is good for families, jobs and the budget.”
On this blog, Avik Roy pointed out that a) since passage of Obamacare, U.S. health spending actually had risen faster than in OECD countries, whereas prior to the law, the opposite was true. Moreover, to the degree that U.S. health spending was slowing down relative to its own recent past, greater cost-sharing was likely to be the principal explanation. Medicare’s actuarial experts confirm that the lion’s share of the slowdown in health spending could be chalked up to slow growth in the economy and greater cost-sharing. As AEI scholar Jim Capretta pithily puts it:
An important takeaway from these new projections is that the CMS Office of the Actuary finds no evidence to link the 2010 health care law to the recent slowdown in health care cost escalation. Indeed, the authors of the projections make it clear that the slowdown is not out of line with the historical link between health spending growth and economic conditions (emphasis added).
(Last link added.)
Conover also provides this handy chart:
By 2022, the ACA is projected to . . . increase cumulative health spending by roughly $621 billion.
Surprisingly, it just came out that Obamacare apparently actually started out as a line for a speech, which may explain a lot. (Hot Air headline: “Revealed: Obama came up with ObamaCare because he needed a throwaway applause line in a campaign speech”)
“We needed something to say,” recalled one of the advisers involved in the discussion. “I can’t tell you how little thought was given to that thought other than it sounded good. So they just kind of hatched it on their own. It just happened. It wasn’t like a deep strategic conversation.”…
The candidate jumped at it. He probably wasn’t going to get elected anyway, the team concluded. Why not go big?
- “Obamacare Already Breaking Promises to Reduce Costs, Insure Everyone”
- “Obamacare Won’t ‘Solve’ Uninsured Problem, Either”
- “More on Obamacare”
- (Even) “More on Obamacare”
- “‘Reality can get 2% of the vote, and it will still trump everything else.’”
Correction (September 24th, 2013): I have corrected the title. I had “annual” on both sides of the semicolon, but of course the second number is a total over eight years, not an annual difference like the first one. My mistake.