A Very Unscientific Survey: Romney Ahead among Independents in Ohio

October 27, 2012

Out of the last 25 people I’ve called (who answered the phone and were willing to take a survey), 56% are likely to vote for Romney, only 12% for Obama.  12% said they were still undecided; 16% declined to answer.  (The remaining one respondent said that politicians are awful and he won’t be voting for either of them.)

Other conservatives working in the trenches report similar results (warning: language).

Apparently the real polls also consistently show Romney winning among independents, by margins that are more modest only by comparison, such as 11 points (10.8—Romney 49.4%, Obama 38.6%—if you average these polls).  (For comparison, “Barack Obama won in 2008 by seven points overall, and eight points among independents.”)

That Hot Air piece also mentions the significant “enthusiasm gap” this year, also in Republicans’ favor.

Meanwhile National Review Online has started a new blog just about the 2012 election in Ohio, which mentions that an Ohio Democratic official recently let slip “some remark[a]bly candid comments about the lack of enthusiasm for Obama”.

Update (October 27th, 2012):  An opinion piece in Politico (“Obama’s fuzzy Ohio early vote math”) makes things sound pretty bad for Obama in Ohio:

In a close race, such as we have today, there is often plenty of data for both sides to use to their favor. One poll says this, another says that.

. . . It is troubling for the president’s supporters that they could not come up with at least a handful of positive data points in Ohio.

One Response to “A Very Unscientific Survey: Romney Ahead among Independents in Ohio”

  1. You certainly might be right, since it’s a 50-50 guess on who will win, not exactly rocket science. I’m glad you admitted that 25 people isn’t much of a predictor of anything. Me, I really don’t know Ohio.

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