Pollster Writes Off Three Swing States, Says Obama Won’t Win Them
October 10, 2012
Paleologos: . . . North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida, we’ve already painted those red; we’re not polling any of those states again. We’re focusing on the remaining states: Pennsylvania—
O’Reilly: Let me stop you there. So you’re convinced—your polling agency is convinced—that Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia are going to go for Romney?
Paleologos: That’s right.
Bill O’Reilly is interviewing David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, which claims a “96% record of accuracy in predicting outcomes.” (More about the center from the student newspaper.)
Hat tip to Rush Limbaugh, who adds he has never heard of a pollster pulling out of a state like this.
Take a look at the trajectories for yourself in Real Clear Politics’ handy line graphs of the polling averages over time: North Carolina, Virginia, Florida. In all three, recently Obama’s numbers have declined precipitously, while Romney has shot right up. If the experts at Suffolk say they can see where this is going, I’m not inclined to disagree.