Pollster Writes Off Three Swing States, Says Obama Won’t Win Them

October 10, 2012

Via Allah Pundit and Gateway Pundit, as the former puts it, “Suffolk pollster: We’re not polling Florida, Virginia, or North Carolina anymore, because Romney’s going to win them”:

Paleologos: . . . North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida, we’ve already painted those red; we’re not polling any of those states again.  We’re focusing on the remaining states: Pennsylvania—

O’Reilly:  Let me stop you there.  So you’re convinced—your polling agency is convinced—that Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia are going to go for Romney?

Paleologos:  That’s right.

Bill O’Reilly is interviewing David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, which claims a “96% record of accuracy in predicting outcomes.”  (More about the center from the student newspaper.)

Hat tip to Rush Limbaugh, who adds he has never heard of a pollster pulling out of a state like this.

Obama won all three of these states in 2008.

Take a look at the trajectories for yourself in Real Clear Politics’ handy line graphs of the polling averages over time: North Carolina, Virginia, Florida.  In all three, recently Obama’s numbers have declined precipitously, while Romney has shot right up.  If the experts at Suffolk say they can see where this is going, I’m not inclined to disagree.

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3 Responses to “Pollster Writes Off Three Swing States, Says Obama Won’t Win Them”

  1. Snoodickle Says:

    Does it strike you as odd that the Republican nominee for president is a former big-government liberal who supported abortion rights and government-subsidized healthcare, and wrote a thesis on how we should let gas prices skyrocket to incentivize the development of alternative energy sources?


  2. […] this!)  But arguably North Carolina had already been lost to Obama for some time—recall “Pollster Writes Off Three Swing States, Says Obama Won’t Win Them”.  Just look at Real Clear Politics’ polling averages in North Carolina:  Romney has been […]


  3. […] Related entry: “Pollster Writes Off Three Swing States, Says Obama Won’t Win Them” […]


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