Alternate Interpretations of the Polls
September 27, 2012
Many conservatives are arguing that recent polls, showing Obama in the lead, probably are not accurate. Here are a few of those arguments:
- Jim Geraghty at National Review Online:
“This Morning’s Polls Project More Heavily Democratic Electorates Than 2008”
“Why Party ID Matters, and Why Pollsters Avert Their Eyes”
- Ed Morrissey, Hot Air: “Are we too sensitive to partisan skew in polls?”
- Da Tech Guy: “Demoralized as Hell, The poll the media isn’t talking about edition”
(Hat tip to Wintery Knight)
In short, the argument is that these polls are way oversampling self-identified Democrats, or undersampling Republicans, relative to their likely share of voter turnout in November. Outside of these polls, Republicans are gaining on Democrats in share of registered voters. Rasmussen also finds that Republicans have gained on Democrats in party identification even more since 2010 (a. k. a. the Tsunami), and certainly compared to 2008; Gallup has today’s numbers more similar to those of 2010 and 2008, but neither it nor Rasmussen shows a huge increase for Democrats, which is apparently what would be necessary to make the polls showing Obama ahead square with reality.
Accordingly, I present for your consideration Unskewed Polls.com. The idea is simple: Real Clear Politics gives averages of different pollsters’ recent polls in any given state and for the nation as a whole. Right now, Real Clear Politics’ national averages have Obama beating Romney, 48.9 to 44.9%.
As I understand it, Unskewed Polls.com wades into the data behind the results various polls, tries to correct the relative sampling of Democrats and Republicans based on a considered estimate of the parties’ relative turnout this November, re-calculates the poll results, and produces its own Unskewed Polls average. Right now, Unskewed has Romney beating Obama 51.8 to 44.0%.
Of course the only poll that matters in the end, as they say, is the official one in November. Make sure you and your friends are registered to vote, donate and volunteer if you can, and make sure you vote!
Hat tip to Disrupt the Narrative.